Ukraine War Daily Summary



20 Aug 22


At the grand strategic level, and in an olive branch to Beijing, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has advised a bi-partisan group of Canadian Parliamentarians to exercise caution in a planned friendship visit to Taiwan.


Taiwan said 17 Chinese aircraft and five Chinese warships were detected operating around Taiwan on Saturday as Beijing continued military activities near the island.


The US and South Korea have warned reportedly that they will respond “sternly” to a North Korean nuclear test by deploying strategic assets to the Korean Peninsula.


The US has reportedly made several concessions to Iran in exchange for a return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Iran International reported officials confirming the concessions the US agreed to include the removal of sanctions on 17 banks, the immediate release of $7 billion worth of Iranian assets frozen in South Korea and allowing the sale of 50 million barrels of Iranian oil in 120 days. According to Iran International, the concessions include the annulment of multiple executive orders signed by former US President Donald Trump. The impact will immediately fill the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps coffers to financial its network of 30 plus regional proxy militias to fund terror throughout the Middle East and leaves Iran a month or so away from a nuclear weapon.


Belarus has 4-7 Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) between Brest and Gomel to fix Ukrainian troops in the North and prevent them from reinforcing forces fighting to the south. Belarusian military are reportedly conducting reconnaissance all along the Ukraine border. While not an indication of hostile action Belarusian forces exercise tempo from mid-spring to now has been unprecedented. Belarus extends military drills near Ukraine's borders until August 20th.


Ukrainian media and Belarusian opposition figures are warning that Russia is amassing significant forces in Belarus to fire missiles on Ukrainian cities with Ukraine's Independence Day on August 24th.


Across the theatre, Russian air and missile strikes continued but were less than the normal trend with impacts mostly in the southeast and south. Russian shelling continues to be heavy around Bakhmut, north of Donetsk and north of Kherson. There were some intensive phases onto Kramatorsk, Kharkiv and Siversk.


Russia has accused Ukraine of chemical terrorism against its forces. Ukraine has said that their illness was caused by expired canned meat.


On the ground, Ukraine's General Staff has said that Russia is concentrating on the Sloviansk axis of advance against Donetsk. This is a switch away from its focus on Bakhmut which could reflect Russia's confidence that it has enough personnel in Kherson to hold on to the oblast.


Fighting continues to be heavy around Bakhmut, Siversk and Soledar regions with Russian forces making some gains.


Around Izyum there were some continued attacks and some Russian units attempted to push through Ukrainian defences near Nova Dmytrivka to the southwest.


Fighting around Donetsk was heavy but with no changes of significance on the ground other than in Marinka which is now reportedly contested.


Russian troops conducted offensives near the villages of Blagodatne and Vasylky in Mykolaiv Oblast to “improve their tactical position.”


British intelligence has acknowledged that Ukraine is not making major progress in Kherson and there is growing speculation that Ukraine's Kherson blitz was a feint to divert Russian elite units and personnel away from Donetsk.


Russian Naval activity in the Black Sea remains high with much of the activity out of Sevastopol.


A Ukrainian drone strike may have hit the Black Sea Fleet Headquarters today.  Russia has said the drone was taken down by anti-aircraft systems. This would be the second attempted strike on the Russian naval headquarters this month.


The newly appointed Commander of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet Vice Admiral Viktor Sokolov said on Friday that the fleet is to receive 12 new warships alongside additional aviation and land-based vehicles this year.


19 Aug 22


At the grand strategic level, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) reportedly possesses the resources to field up to five aircraft carriers and 10 nuclear ballistic missile submarines by 2030.


The Biden administration has reportedly caved to Iranian demands on three points and offered concessions on the Iran nuclear deal.


Belarus has 4-7 Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) between Brest and Gomel to fix Ukrainian troops in the North and prevent them from reinforcing forces fighting to the south. Belarusian military are reportedly conducting reconnaissance all along the Ukraine border. While not an indication of hostile action Belarusian forces exercise tempo from mid-spring to now has been unprecedented. Belarus extends military drills near Ukraine's borders until August 20th.


Ukrainian media and Belarusian opposition figures are warning that Russia is amassing significant forces in Belarus to fire missiles on Ukrainian cities with Ukraine's Independence Day on August 24th.


Across the theatre, Russian and air missile strikes remained reduced yesterday, but increased overnight after Ukrainian attacks on Russian airfields in Russia and Crimea. Russian air activity increased across the south, especially around Mykolaiv. Russian shelling continued near Bakhmut and around Donetsk city. Heavy shelling was also reported north of Kherson, north of Donetsk, northeast of Kharkiv and into Sumy Oblast.


A Western official estimates the attack on Saky airfield in Crimea by Ukraine 'put more than half of Russia's Black Sea Fleet naval aviation combat jets out of use.


On the ground, fighting continues to be significant near Bakhmut, Soledar and around Donetsk. Russian forces made gains towards Bakhmut, but attacks near Soledar were repelled.


Ukrainian counter-attacks  continued to re-secure ground south of Izyum with some more Russian units moving north out of Izyum back along their resupply corridor towards Russia. It seems a number of Russian Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) have now withdrawn.

Russian forces made gains around Donetsk with bouts of heavy fighting.


There are increasing concerns of an accident or deliberate incident at the damaged Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant occupied by the Russian military. Russia is warning of an imminent catastrophe in Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.


East of Zaporizhzhia Ukrainian counter-attacks continued to advance on the ground and destroy Russian defences.


Around Kherson Russian resistance continued to launch offensives against a growing Ukrainian counter-offensive. Russia has significant military resources in this region now, but Ukrainian forces continue to strike defences with artillery and airstrikes.


Russian Naval activity in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov remains active.