Ukraine War Daily Summary

25 Jun 22


US President Joe Biden has left the White House for a week of diplomacy at the G7 and NATO summits in which he hopes to reinforce the Western alliance against Russia and look to challenges from China.


According to Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, Moscow will reportedly give Iskander-M nuclear-capable short-range ballistic missile systems in the coming months. Beyond nuclear capable missiles, Russia will help Belarus secure fighter jets that can carry nuclear weapons. Putin's upgrade of Belarus's Su-25s in Russia are noteworthy, especially in light of increased tensions with Poland and Lithuania, and Finland's NATO membership.


An overnight airstrike on Ukraine from Belarus is a clear Russian attempt to draw Belarus into war. Six Russian Tu-22M bombers launched 12 missiles from Belarus, targeting Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Sumy oblasts. Two missile strikes hit civilian infrastructure in Rivne Oblast.


Alexander Lukashneko announced plans to increase Belarus's position in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Belarus is currently an observer but there have been persistent reports that it is planning to apply for full-scale SCO membership.


Belarusian forces are conducting mobilization exercises along the Ukrainian border.


The Armed Forces of Belarus has expanded military exercises until today. The previous exercises were scheduled to stop at the end of May.


Belarus has deployed special forces, air defense, and missile units along the Ukrainian border is an effort to fix Ukrainian troops in the North and prevent them from reinforcing forces fighting for their survival to the south.

In the theatre of operations, Russian air/missile strikes have continued and were again widespread with impacts reported across several regions.


Russian continues to slightly expand the scope of its Close Air Support with most of this focused around Bakhmut, Popasna and south of Lysychansk.


There was further heavy Russian shelling around Kharkiv yesterday and north of Kherson in the south. Russian artillery fire into the Sumy region in the north has also increased dramatically.


The Russian Ministry of Defense stated that the leadership of its central and southern groups of forces fighting Ukraine has changed.


Russia has reportedly removed two key military figures Colonel-General Andrei Serdyukov, Commander Airborne Forces  and General Aleksandr Dvornikov, Commander Southern Military District  from operational command roles.


On the ground, Russia is reportedly using its reserve forces in a covert mobilisation to replenish its ranks in eastern Ukraine and there is no point in simply waiting for its offensive potential to fizzle out wane.


Russia’s shelling has damaged the subcritical nuclear reactor in Kharkiv.


Russian forces continued positional battles north of Kharkiv City.


Russia has gained full control of the strategic city of Sievierodonetsk in Luhansk Oblast.

South of Sievierodonetsk, Ukrainian soldiers have retreated from the towns of Hirske and Zolote in the face of overwhelming Russian forces.


Lysychansk is set to become the next main focus of fighting. Pro-Russian leader says it would take another week and a half to secure full control of Lysychansk.


Russian troops and allies entered Lysychansk and street fighting is underway in the eastern Ukrainian city which neighbours its strategic twin  Sievierodonetsk.


Russian forces made measured gains to the north and southeast of Bakhmut.


Russian forces continued unsuccessful attempts to advance southeast of Izyum toward Slovyansk.


Ukraine’s general staff said its troops had some success in the southern Kherson region forcing the Russians back from defensive positions near the village of Olhine.


Russian forces attempted to strengthen their defensive lines and recapture lost positions on the Southern Axis.



24 Jun 22

At the grand strategic level, Poland has reportedly asked NATO to increase its security presence in the Suwalki Gap. Additional fortification of the Suwalki Gap would benefit Lithuania's security as tensions mount between Russia and Lithuania over Kaliningrad.


Russia is using retired military personnel working as Wagner Group contractors to conduct close air support, a sign that Russia is struggling to field aircrews for the war in Ukraine.


Belarusian forces are conducting mobilization exercises along the Ukrainian border.


The Armed Forces of Belarus has expanded military exercises until at least June 25th.

The previous exercises were scheduled to stop at the end of May.


Belarus has deployed special forces, air defense, and missile units along the Ukrainian border is an effort to fix Ukrainian troops in the North and prevent them from reinforcing forces fighting for their survival to the south.


Russian air/missile strikes have continued and were again widespread with impacts reported across several regions.


Russian continues to slightly expand the scope of its Close Air Support with most of this focused around Bakhmut, Popasna and south of Lysychansk.


There was further heavy Russian shelling around Kharkiv yesterday and north of Kherson in the south. Russian artillery fire into the Sumy region in the north has also increased dramatically.


Russian Tank, Airborne and HQ units have broken free of Ukrainian defensive positions  around Izium to reinforce the offensives on Sievierodonetsk and then next Slovyansk.

Significant Russian artillery fire and missile strikes continues towards Slovyansk, Bakhmut and Lysychansk.


A senior US Defense Official has warned that Russia has suffered heavy casualties and equipment losses in Ukraine that is slowing down the Donbas campaign. The Russian forces are showing the signs of "wear and tear" and "debilitated morale" that is limiting troops from moving forward. Russia remains behind schedule in its original military plan in Ukraine to be “thoroughly dominating” the country at this point.


Russia's impending capture of Sieverodonetsk gives it another foothold by the Siversky Donets River. It remains unclear whether Russia can cross the river without heavy losses of manpower and artillery


Ukrainian forces are conducting a classic, organized withdrawal from positions in Sieverodonetsk is an effort to get into a position where they can defend themselves.


Russia's assault on Lysychansk in Luhansk received another boost today when the district of Hirske-Zolote south of Lysychansk fell into Russian hands and have likely encircled Ukrainian troops in the area.


It is likely both Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk will fall to Russia in the coming days.


Ukrainian forces are continuing to launch counteroffensive operations along the Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border and are threatening Russian forces in Kherson City.


Ukrainian partisans continued to attack Russian collaborators in Kherson City.




23 Jul 22


At the grand strategic level, the US is reportedly hopeful there will soon be a positive resolution to disputes between Turkey, Finland and Sweden regarding the NATO accession bids of the two Nordic countries.


Leaders from the G7 and the NATO alliance will reportedly seek to increase pressure on Russia over its war in Ukraine at meetings next week, while making clear that they remain concerned about China.


Meanwhile, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said on June 23rd that Russia and Belarus would strengthen their military cooperation.


Belarus could reportedly be ready to provide Russia with weapons as equipment of the Belarusian military is currently being serviced and removed from storage.


Belarusian forces are conducting mobilization exercises along the Ukrainian border.


The Armed Forces of Belarus has expanded military exercises until at least June 25th.

The previous exercises were scheduled to stop at the end of May.


Belarus has deployed special forces, air defense, and missile units along the Ukrainian border is an effort to fix Ukrainian troops in the North and prevent them from reinforcing forces fighting for their survival to the south.



At the theatre level, Russian air/missile strikes have continued and were again widespread with impacts reported across several regions.


Russian air activity increased yesterday in the south and southeast. Russian air activity continues to be high around Bakhmut, Izium and south of Lysychansk where Russian forces continue to attempt to make gains and several airstrikes were conducted yesterday.


Russian shelling was also intensive in these areas and towards Slovyansk. There were phases of intensive shelling north of Kharkiv again yesterday and north of Kherson. Elsewhere Russian shelling was more sporadic.


On the ground, fighting around Kharkiv continued as Russian forces attempted to push Ukrainian forces further away from the border areas and their key resupply route south to Izium.


Russian forces resumed pounding Ukraine’s second-biggest city Kharkiv close to the Russian border.


Russian manoeuvres out of Izium continue to be constrained by Ukrainian forces


Russian forces shelled the village of Pechenihy on the night and morning of June 23rd. The attack destroyed multiple houses.


Russian forces fire on 14 settlements in Donetsk Oblast and damaged or destroyed 25 buildings.