Ukraine War Daily Summary

16 Jul 22

At the grand strategic level, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu has ordered Russian troops to 'increase actions' in Ukraine. The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that Sergey Shoigu “inspected” Russian troops fighting in Ukraine. It should be noted that Russia continues to recruit foreign fighters the Syria, recently retired reservists and convicts with military experience to avoid moving to full mobilization of its military and reserve forces.


Russian ally Belarus has continued command-staff exercises with the territorial troops of the Zhlobin district/Gomel region.


Belarus has deployed special forces, air defense, and missile units along the Ukrainian border is an effort to fix Ukrainian troops in the North and prevent them from reinforcing forces fighting for their survival to the south.


Belarus has 4-7 Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) between Brest and Gomel. While not an indication of hostile action Belarusian forces exercise tempo from mid-spring to now has been unprecedented.


Belarusian military are reportedly conducting reconnaissance and "stepping up measures to counter (Ukraine's) reconnaissance by unmanned aerial vehicles."


Across the Theatre of Operations since the start of the war, Ukraine’s Ministry of Internal Affairs has said Russia launched “17,314 strikes on civilian targets, and a little more than 300 hits on military targets.”


Russian air/missile strikes continued with Dnipro impacted by several cruise missiles last night as was Bila Tserkva south of Kyiv, but the majority of the attacks are again in the south and southeast. Odesa was also targeted again this morning. Russian strategic bombers launched multiple stand off airstrikes from the Caspian Sea targeting mostly manufacturing and infrastructure in the Dnipro region. Russian shelling continues to be significant around Bakhmut, Siversk and towards Slovyansk. Kramatorsk was also targeted as was the Sumy region.


The US believes that Russian officials have visited an airfield in Iran to view drones. The Shahed-191 and Shahed-129 drones are of special interest to Russia. Iran says that the Shahed-191 has been used in Syria to target ISIS, while the Shahed-129 has been used for border patrol on Iran's eastern border and for airstrikes in Syria.


On the ground, North of Kharkiv fighting and shelling continues, with no significant changes on the ground.


Heavy fighting continues around Bilohorivka, Siversk and south/southeast of Bakhmut as well as north of here along the Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway. Fighting is likely to intensify in the Donbas this week as Russia seems to be finalising its resupply ‘Operational Pause’. According to Ukraine's General Staff, the Russian army is focusing on gaining control over the towns of Siversk and Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast.


Ukraine has repelled another Russian attempt to seize the Vuhlehirsk power plant.


Siversk is still reportedly under the control of Ukrainian forces despite some claims to the contrary.


Ukrainian forces continue to contain most Russian manoeuvres out of Izyum with fighting ongoing West and North of the city.


Russian forces that advanced southeast attacked Bohorodychne again which is now contested. Heavy fighting is ongoing here and to its south where Ukrainian forces have fortified positions.


Further south there was also increased Russian air activity east of Zaporizhzhia where Ukrainian artillery units were targeted.


Ukraine has warned that Russia is using the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant as a military base to store missiles and arms used to shell Ukrainian cities.


North of Kherson Russian forces conducted shelling and air/missile strikes on Ukrainian units. Russian defences have been fortified here and their heavy resistance has slowed the Ukrainian counter-offensive east.


In and around Kherson there were more artillery strikes by Ukrainian forces onto Russian units and resupply depots to the southeast with no changes on the ground.

15 Jul 22


At the grand strategic level, Russian President Vladimir Putin has scheduled an operational meeting of the Russian Security Council, as concerning rumours resound that Russia and Belarus are finally moving toward a reunification. The Russian leader has been very active this week, as he directed a reshuffle of government, and signed more than 60 bills on Thursday. On Friday, Putin signed a decree appointing Denis Manturov, Minister of Industry and Trade, as Russia's Deputy Prime minister and purged the Director General of the Space Program. Some observers are warning that Putin may, during Friday's meeting, sign a "pact to unite" Russia, Belarus and Ukraine. It is believed that Putin will use former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych to sign the document. Yanukovych fled to Russia in 2014. There have been repeated threats by Russia to drag Belarus into the fighting and to put Yanukocych in place as the government in exile of Ukraine.


Canada’s Finance Minister told Russian officials at the G20 meeting that she held them personally responsible for “war crimes” committed during Russia’s war in Ukraine.


More than 40 countries reportedly agreed to work together to investigate suspected war crimes by Russian forces in Ukraine during a conference at the headquarters of the International Criminal Court in The Hague.


Russian ally Belarus has continued command-staff exercises with the territorial troops of the Zhlobin district/Gomel region.


Belarus has deployed special forces, air defense, and missile units along the Ukrainian border is an effort to fix Ukrainian troops in the North and prevent them from reinforcing forces fighting for their survival to the south.


Belarus has 4-7 Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) between Brest and Gomel. While not an indication of hostile action Belarusian forces exercise tempo from mid-spring to now has been unprecedented.


Belarusian military are reportedly conducting reconnaissance and "stepping up measures to counter (Ukraine's) reconnaissance by unmanned aerial vehicles."


Across the Theatre of Operations, Russian air/missile strikes continued with strikes further west killing more than 20 civilians and injuring over 60 after civilian buildings were hit in Vinnytsia. Vinnytsia was targeted by Kalibr cruise missiles fired from the Black Sea, but land launched, stand off airstrikes, and airstrikes by Russian aircraft providing Close Air Support all occurred in the last 24hrs with the south, south east and Kharkiv region continue to be the primary areas of air/missile strikes. Russian shelling continues to be significant around Siversk, Bakhmut and towards Slovyansk. Ukrainian forces conducted further HIMARS strikes overnight against Russian resupply depots in the Luhansk and Kherson Oblast regions.


On the ground, some shelling exchanges and fighting continued north and northeast of Kharkiv, but with no significant changes on the ground and no indications of any imminent new major Russian offensive.


Russian forces continued to slowly advance westwards from the town of Lysychansk in the Luhansk region towards Siversk in Donetsk.

Fighting continued around Bakhmut and Siversk and was intensive again south of Bakhmut. Some intensive fighting is also ongoing south of Izyum around Kurulka after Ukrainian counter-attack.


Fighting also continued to the west of Izyum in the forest and there were attacks to the north as Ukrainian forces try to interrupt Russian resupplies and continue to contain Russian forces.


There was also increased fighting to the southeast of Izyum around Bohorodychne.


Russian forces continued to focus on defensive operations along the entire Southern Axis leaving them vulnerable to Ukrainian counter offensives and precision strike artillery attacks.


East of Zaporizhzhia there were some Russian manoeuvres near Huliaipole with reports of some fortifications on defensive lines. Russia is also fortifying its defences significantly around Kherson with concrete fortifications.


Senior US military official have warned on Russia's activities at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant saying, "I think we're all concerned about the Russians being responsible for anything nuclear."

There was another Ukrainian artillery attack on a base in Kherson yesterday and a resupply depot just outside the city. North of Kherson Russian forces launched airstrikes on Ukrainian positions who continue to make small gains south and east.



14 Jul 22


At the grand strategic level, Russian ally Belarus announced that command-staff exercises with the territorial troops of the Zhlobin district/Gomel region, Belarus will be held from July 12th to July 14th.


Belarus has deployed special forces, air defense, and missile units along the Ukrainian border is an effort to fix Ukrainian troops in the North and prevent them from reinforcing forces fighting for their survival to the south.


Belarus has 4-7 Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) between Brest and Gomel. While not an indication of hostile action Belarusian forces exercise tempo from mid-spring to now has been unprecedented.


Belarusian forces have conducted reconnaissance in northern Ukraine.


Belarusian military are reportedly conducting reconnaissance and "stepping up measures to counter (Ukraine's) reconnaissance by unmanned aerial vehicles."


Across the Theatre, the US Embassy in Kyiv has issued a "Missile Threat Awareness" security alert, warning to Americans to "avoid large gatherings and organized events as they may serve as Russian military targets anywhere in Ukraine, including its western regions."


Russian air/missile strikes continued with the south and southeast mostly impacted. Russian shelling has continued to be intensive around Bakhmut, Siversk and towards Slovyansk with some intensive phases north of Kharkiv. According to the Ukrainian State Emergency Service, 66 people, including three children, were injured and 22 killed as a result of the July 14th missile attack on downtown Vinnytsia. Russian attacks on Vinnytsia were Kalibr cruise missiles launched from Black Sea.


On the ground, North of Kharkiv fightings continues, with Ukrainian forces pushing back Russian units in the northeast, but Russian reconnaissance and small offensives are continuing with Close Air Support.


Ukrainian troops also repelled a Russian offensive near the village of Kurulka in Kharkiv Oblast in the direction of Sloviansk.


Some heavy fighting continues around Siversk, Bakhmut, Izyum and Slovyansk, but with minimal Russian gains.


There are reports Russian troops, along with forces from the Russian-backed self-proclaimed Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR), have entered the city limits of Siversk in eastern Ukraine.


South of Bakhmut there was a large Russian offensive on Novoluhans'ke and another attack on the Vuhlehirsʹka Tes power plant which remains in Ukrainian control.


North of Slovyansk most Ukrainian forces have withdrawn from Bohorodychne to defensive positions on the high ground.


Continued Ukrainian counter offensives to the west of Izyum and ongoing containment operations continue to impede Russian forces reinforcing offensives on Slovyansk.


Russian forces continued to focus on defensive operations along the entire Southern Axis leaving them vulnerable to Ukrainian counter offensives and precision strike artillery attacks.


East of Zaporizhzhia Ukrainian airstrikes targeted Russian defensive positions.


Russia is fortifying defensive positions in and around Kherson and along the river to the north in anticipation of a major Ukrainian counteroffensive.





13 Jul 22


At the grand strategic level, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is calling on Russia to immediately halt "filtration" and forced deportations in Ukraine. Blinken said Russia has interrogated, detained, and forcibly deported between 900,000 and 1.6 million Ukrainians, including 260,000 children.


Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told CNN there are currently no talks between Russia and Ukraine because of Moscow's position and continuing aggression. He said,  "Ukraine's objective in this war is to liberate our territories and restore our territorial integrity and full sovereignty in the east and the south of Ukraine. This is the end point of our negotiating position."


The EU said Russia may continue the transit of sanctioned goods destined for the Kaliningrad Oblast through the bloc’s territory by rail but EU states must inspect goods being transported.


The Belarusian Ministry of Defence announced that command-staff exercises with the territorial troops of the Zhlobin district/Gomel region, Belarus will be held from July 12 to July 14.


Belarus has deployed special forces, air defense, and missile units along the Ukrainian border is an effort to fix Ukrainian troops in the North and prevent them from reinforcing forces fighting for their survival to the south.


Belarus has 4-7 Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) between Brest and Gomel. While not an indication of hostile action Belarusian forces exercise tempo from mid-spring to now has been unprecedented.


Belarusian forces have conducted reconnaissance in northern Ukraine. Belarusian military are reportedly conducting reconnaissance and "stepping up measures to counter (Ukraine's) reconnaissance by unmanned aerial vehicles."


Across the theatre of operations, Russian air/missile strikes continued with fewer impacts reported than recent days with the south and southeast were the main regions targeted. Russian shelling continues to be intensive across much of the Donbas with some intensive periods around Kherson and Kharkiv. According to Serhii Bratchuk, the spokesman for the Odesa Oblast Administration, Ukraine destroyed a Russian military base in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and five ammunition depots in Russian-occupied areas.


On the ground, around Kharkiv Russian forces launched a coordinated offensive on

Dementiivka, with significant artillery cover fire.


Donetsk Governor Pavlo Kyrylenko reported a significant build-up of Russian troops, particularly in the Bakhmut and Siversk areas, and close to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, as the region braces for a powerful pincer type offensive.


There was some heavy fighting around Siversk as Russian forces continue to push west and launch offensives towards the city from the east.


Russian advances in the Bakhmut region were minimal with Ukrainian reinforcements using artillery support. A Russian ammunition depot targeted in Luhansk last night is believed to have been launched from the Bakhmut region.


Russian manoeuvres towards Slovyansk were small and ineffective while there was some fighting west of Izyum again, but no reports of significant Russian movements.


The Russian units in and around Lyman continued to be resupplied, reinforced and reorganized with no reported activity.


Russian forces continued to focus on defensive operations along the entire Southern Axis leaving them vulnerable to Ukrainian counter offensives and precision strike artillery attacks.


East of Zaporizhzhia Russian units continued to be targeted by Ukrainian artillery with minimal Russian action reported.


Ukrainian forces targeted several Russian defensive positions near Kherson including a command post, ADS and the airfield again last night. Another ammunition depot was also hit near Charivne.


It is confirmed now that the Ukrainian long range artillery attack last night on Nova Kakhovka killed several Senior Russian Officers including a Major General.


More Russian reinforcements arrived in Kherson early this morning from Crimea and Melitopol.


12 Jul 22


In summary, there is a feeling of 1939 in the air that is hard to erase.


In September of 1939, Germany invaded Poland and when it was in its death throes Russia followed up splitting the country in half. In the Pacific, Japan threatened most of Southeast Asia, India, Australia, and invaded China subjugating much of the country and slaughtering its population. The free world was led by Winston Churchill and Franklyn Roosevelt while the axis leaders were Dictators Adolf Hitler, Benito Mussolini and General Hideki Tojo all bent on conquest and changing the status quo. All brutal with domestic opponents that they brutalized and destroyed at home and abroad. The western powers sat back and watched as allies both in Europe and the Pacific begged for assistance, promising security guarantees and offering every support short of assistance. The dictatorships in Europe and Asia advanced and hoped the Western allies unprepared for war would lose interest and cooperate or collapse and appease the very dictatorships they loathed and feared.


In February  of 2021, Russia invaded Ukraine and threatened the Baltic States and Poland. Meanwhile, Germany, Italy, and France denied the protection of NATO membership to Ukraine and Georgia in the face of Russian aggression and complicated the alliance response by urges to appease blood thirsty murderers. In the Pacific, China threatened most of Southeast Asia, Japan, India, Australia, and is its slaughtering its population Turkic population in a genocide reminiscent of NAZI Germany. The free world has no Winston Churchill and Franklyn Roosevelt but the axis leaders have Dictators akin to Adolf Hitler, Benito Mussolini and General Hideki Tojo in Presidents Putin, Lukashenko, Xi Jinping. All are bent on conquest and changing the status quo. All are ruthless with domestic opponents that they brutalized and destroyed at home and abroad. The Western powers have again sat back and watched as allies both in Europe and the Pacific begged for assistance, promising security guarantees and offering every support short of assistance. The dictatorships in Europe and Asia continued to advanced and hope the Western allies unprepared for war would lose interest and cooperate or collapse and appease the very dictatorships they loathed and feared.


In 1939, the geo-strategic dynamics led to total war and the use of nuclear weapons as the nature of human conflict escalated to a level never seen before in the history of war and today we are there again but without the resolve of Churchill and Roosevelt. We are there with the resolve of Biden and Trudeau and the evil that they must confront is as evil or more evil than that confronted more than 83 years ago by their predecessors. As you read today’s summary be aware of the fault-lines that could push us into total war.  Recent, bi-lateral naval exercises between China and Russia in the Pacific were nothing more than a thinly disguised operation to threaten Japan and its Senkaku Islands and to deter Japan from coming to the aid of Taiwan, another democracy, in time of war.



At the grand strategic level, Canada's Ambassador to Ukraine has been summoned to the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry over a break in Canada's support for Ukraine with Canada returning gas turbines to Germany needed for Nord Stream to operate. Ukrainian President Zelensky's said in a statement that, "The Ministry of Foreign Affairs had to summon Canada’s envoy due to an absolutely unacceptable exception to the sanctions regime against Russia. The decision will be perceived in Moscow exclusively as a manifestation of weakness." The US has said that it supports Canada’s action to return the repaired turbines to Germany likely to maintain NATO cohesion. Gazprom has conducted 10 days of maintenance on Nord Stream and France is warnings about an imminent Russian gas supply cutoff to Europe. There is an increased fear that Russia is playing up technical issues as a smokescreen for the weaponization of gas. There can be little doubt as Moscow mocks Canada and claims victory that it will turn off the taps now anytime it wants and likely at the most strategic moment under the guise of a technical flaw. Canada has essentially handed Russia a strategic victory on Ukraine which have been few and far between for both sides of the war.


Turkey urged Russia to establish a sea corridor for grain via the Black Sea which aligns well with Ukraine's goals but Erdogan's call with Putin did not publicly reveal any serious discussions about ending Russia's smuggling of Ukrainian grain from Berdyansk near the Black Sea. Turkey is still engaged in damage control over its release of a Russian-flagged ship with stolen Ukrainian grain. After speaking with Putin, Erdogan held talks with Zelensky and continued Ankara’s shuttle diplomacy between Russia, Ukraine and the UN on the food insecurity crisis.


Former Russian President and Putin’s most trusted protege Dimtry Medvedev has warned that any attempts by the West to punish Russia with war crimes and investigations could lead to nuclear war. “These proposals are not only legally void. The idea of punishing a country that possesses [the world’s] largest nuclear potential is absurd in of itself. And potentially threatens the existence of mankind.”


Lithuania could be Russia's next target after Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarus promised "joint measures" against the country because of an EU sanctions ban. The contentious issue of Russian cargo being transported to Kaliningrad from Minsk has raised tensions to boiling point between Lithuania and Russia, with Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda refusing to back down.


Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko claimed on Tuesday that the West was preparing to attack Russia via Belarus.


The Belarusian Ministry of Defence announced that command-staff exercises with the territorial troops of the Zhlobin district/Gomel region, Belarus will be held from July 12 to July 14.


Belarus has deployed special forces, air defense, and missile units along the Ukrainian border is an effort to fix Ukrainian troops in the North and prevent them from reinforcing forces fighting for their survival to the south.


Belarus has 4-7 Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) between Brest and Gomel. While not an indication of hostile action Belarusian forces exercise tempo from mid-spring to now has been unprecedented.


Belarusian forces have conducted reconnaissance in northern Ukraine.

Belarusian military are reportedly conducting reconnaissance and "stepping up measures to counter (Ukraine's) reconnaissance by unmanned aerial vehicles."


The White House said it believes Russia is turning to Iran to provide it with “hundreds” of unmanned aerial vehicles, including weapons-capable drones, for use in its ongoing invasion of Ukraine. There are concerns that many of these drones might be loitering munitions or suicide drones whose effectiveness was proven in the recent Armenian-Azerbaijan War. Azerbaijan used suicide drones to incredible effect on the much stronger Armenia Armed Forces and defeated them in battle. Russia is believed to have heavily monitored and studied the conflict.


According to the representative of the Ukraine Defense Ministry’s Intelligence Directorate, Vadym Skibitsky, Putin will not recognize that Russia's military actions in Ukraine are a full-scale war and will not announce mobilization.


Across the Theatre of Operations, Russian air/missile strikes have continued with impacts mostly in the south, southeast and around Kharkiv. Russian shelling continues to be intensive across the Donbas and several other regions, but Ukrainian HIMARS long range strikes are starting to have some impact on Russian defences. Ukrainian forces have succeeded in destroying multiple Russian command posts, warehouses storing ammo, fuel in recent days. A senior US military official warned on  Friday that Ukraine was using US-provided HIMARs to target Russian command and control and logistics hubs. Russia still possesses an 8 to 1 artillery advantage over the Ukrainian military in barrelled and missile artillery.


On the ground, fighting continued north and northwest of Kharkiv but there were no significant changes on the ground. Russian forces are building-up again with a major offensive possible in the coming weeks.


Shelling and fighting remains intensive towards Slovyansk, but Ukrainian resistance remains strong.


Russian forces in and around Izyum continue contained with occasional heavy fighting to the west of the city.


Russian units made some progress securing roads and at least one settlement near Ivano-Darivka on their march to Siversk.


Russian forces continue to push forwards towards Bakhmut, but progress is very slow with reports of more significant casualties amongst their Private Contractors. South of Bakhmut Ukrainian forces remain in control of the Vuhlehirsʹka Tes power plant despite some significant Russian attacks.


Russian troops are claiming to have seized control of the village of Hryhorivka in the Donetsk Oblast.


A Russian offensive to the west of Donetsk City was also repelled by Ukrainian units, but fighting has increased in this region. Russian air and artillery strikes have also increased.


Russian forces continued to focus on defensive operations along the entire Southern Axis leaving them vulnerable to Ukrainian counter offensives and precision strike artillery attacks.


There were a number of effective Ukrainian artillery strikes east of Zaporizhzhia yesterday with reports of Russian vehicles and a command post destroyed.


Ukrainian journalist Roman Tsymbalyuk is claiming that the Commander, Chief of Staff, Chief of the Operations, and Commander of artillery for Russia's 20th Motorized Rifle Division and Chief of Staff of the 22nd Army Corps were killed in Kherson Oblast.


Around Kherson Ukrainian forces made some progress re-securing further settlements and strategic routes including Kyselivka northwest of the city outskirts and impeding Russian defences.


There was a significant Ukrainian artillery strike on a Russian ammunition, weapons and re-supply base near Nova Kakhovka with significant destruction and casualties.


There are five Russian missile-armed ships and one large landing ship in the Black Sea, as well as a submarine. In total, they carry 44 Kalibr-type cruise missiles.




11 Jul 22


At the grand strategic level, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said he had discussed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and raise concerns about Beijing’s alignment with Moscow.


Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokeswoman characterised United Kingdom Foreign Secretary Liz Truss’s early departure from Bali, before last week’s G20 meeting, as a “deep boycott” of the Russian delegation.


Belarus has extended for the third time military exercises until at least July 16th.


Belarusian forces are conducting mobilization exercises along the Ukrainian border.


Belarus has deployed special forces, air defense, and missile units along the Ukrainian border is an effort to fix Ukrainian troops in the North and prevent them from reinforcing forces fighting for their survival to the south.


Belarus has 4-7 Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) between Brest and Gomel. While not an indication of hostile action Belarusian forces exercise tempo from mid-spring to now has been unprecedented.


Belarusian forces have conducted reconnaissance in northern Ukraine.


Belarusian military are reportedly conducting reconnaissance and "stepping up measures to counter (Ukraine's) reconnaissance by unmanned aerial vehicles."


According to Lieutenant General Serhiy Nayev, Commander of the Ukrainian Joint Forces, measures are being taken to mine areas on the Belarusian border from which Belarus could attack Ukraine.


At the Theatre level, Russian air/missile strikes continued but are less than usually reportedly with Kharkiv and parts of the south and southeast targeted. Russian shelling continued to be significant across much of the Donbas and around Slovyansk and Bakhmut.


Ukrainian forces have reportedly hit a Russian ammunition depot in occupied Nova Kakhovka for the fourth time. Ukraine has had great success using drones and artillery to destroy Russian fuel and ammunition depots. It is having an affect on Russian forces abilities to hold the lines during their so-called ‘operational pause. ‘


On the ground, fighting continued north of Kharkiv, but with no significant changes on the ground.


There was some Russian manoeuvres out of Izyum with heavy Close Air Support and reinforcements moving south for the Slovyansk offensive. There were Russian offensives around Bohorodychne which is now contested.


Russian specialist forces also launched an offensive to the west on Mazanivka, but this was so far repelled by Ukrainian forces.


Towards Bakhmut Russian forces made minimal gains, but have made progress towards and around Siversk securing some strategic roads and settlements.


North of Kherson Ukrainian forces are making minimal gains, under significant Russian resistance.


Russian forces are reinforcing defensive positions east of Zaporizhzhia digging in after Ukrainian artillery and airstrikes.




10 Jul 22


At the grand strategic level, Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned Kyiv and its Western allies that Moscow has not yet started its military campaign in Ukraine “in earnest.”


Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov dismissed what he cast as the West’s “frenzied” criticism of the war in Ukraine at the G20 meeting.


The joint summit of G20 Foreign Ministers opened in Bali on Thursday, with Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi urging her counterparts to find ways to end the war in Ukraine sooner rather than later.


Canadian Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson announced on July 9th that Canada will return a repaired Russian turbine to Germany that Russia considers necessary for the supply of natural gas to Europe.


Russian forces continued to set conditions for the annexation of Donbas, Kharkiv Oblast, and southern Ukraine.


Belarus has extended for the third time military exercises until at least July 16th.


Belarusian forces are conducting mobilization exercises along the Ukrainian border.

Belarus has deployed special forces, air defense, and missile units along the Ukrainian border is an effort to fix Ukrainian troops in the North and prevent them from reinforcing forces fighting for their survival to the south.


Belarus has 4-7 Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) between Brest and Gomel. While not an indication of hostile action Belarusian forces exercise tempo from mid-spring to now has been unprecedented.


Belarusian forces have conducted reconnaissance in northern Ukraine.

Belarusian military are reportedly conducting reconnaissance and "stepping up measures to counter (Ukraine's) reconnaissance by unmanned aerial vehicles."


According to Lieutenant General Serhiy Nayev, Commander of the Ukrainian Joint Forces, measures are being taken to mine areas on the Belarusian border from which Belarus could attack Ukraine.


Across the Theatre, Russian air/missile strikes have continued but there are fewer reported than the usual trend. The use of Surface to Air missiles used as Surface to Surface has also been reported This is a likely an indication of a depletion in standoff munitions. Close Air Support by fast air has been reduced in recent days despite good weather. There seems to be an increased Russian ground air integration reliance on attack helicopters. There continues to be some Close Air Support by Russian Su-25s north of Slovyansk and south of Izyum. The use of Russian artillery has increased again and will likely remain intensive in many areas while Russia continues its ‘Operational Pause’ and reorganisation/regeneration.


On the ground, there were Russian missile strikes on Kharkiv and an increase in artillery strikes in the north in coordination with at least two Russian offensives on Kochubeivka and Dementiivka.


There are reports Russia is moving several reserve force units from around Russia to Crimea, Belgorod and other areas close to aid with their regeneration of forces after suffering heavy losses in the Luhansk Oblast offensives.


Fighting continues to be heavy around Siversk and Bakhmut with Russian forces making minimal gains.


Russia’s more immediate “tactical objective” in the east was likely to be the town of Siversk than capturing Slovyansk and Kramatorsk.


There was yet again minimal Russian manoeuvres out of Izyum yesterday with continued Ukrainian counteroffensives and containment operations in the region impeding Russia’s ability to reinforce its offensives towards Slovyansk.


Kherson airfield was reportedly targeted by Ukrainian missiles shortly after the arrival of Russian helicopters yesterday with likely loses.


An ammunition depot in the city was also targeted with heavy loss of Russian lives.


Ukrainian forces also targeted Russian defences near Mariupol last night with artillery fire.


Sabotage activity in the occupied regions and across the border in Russia continues to expand with many incidents. Railway lines and signals, communications, fuel depots are the most common targets, but the targeting of Russian Officials with IEDs is also increasing.



9 Jul 22

At the grand strategic level, it was reported that Beijing and Moscow held a joint strategic bomber exercise in May.


Belarus has extended for the third time military exercises until at least July 16th.


Belarusian forces are conducting mobilization exercises along the Ukrainian border.


Belarus has deployed special forces, air defense, and missile units along the Ukrainian border is an effort to fix Ukrainian troops in the North and prevent them from reinforcing forces fighting for their survival to the south.


Belarus has 4-7 Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) between Brest and Gomel. While not an indication of hostile action Belarusian forces exercise tempo from mid-spring to now has been unprecedented.


Belarusian forces have conducted reconnaissance in northern Ukraine.

Belarusian military are reportedly conducting reconnaissance and "stepping up measures to counter (Ukraine's) reconnaissance by unmanned aerial vehicles."


According to Lieutenant General Serhiy Nayev, Commander of the Ukrainian Joint Forces, measures are being taken to mine areas on the Belarusian border from which Belarus could attack Ukraine.


Across the theatre, Russian air/missile strikes continued but there were less impacts than normal. Targets were mostly in the south and southeast.


On the ground, the Russian soldiers who have completed the seizure of Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk and are "in need of regenerating combat power and building up supporting capabilities," including supply, before launching another large-scale offensive operation. Russian forces will likely continue to conduct more-limited offensive operations in this sector and elsewhere along the front line as they recognize the danger of allowing the Ukrainians to seize the initiative and initiate an offensive of their own. Artillery fire, airstrikes and smaller offensives will likely continue to provide cover for Russian reorganisation and resupply especially around Lysychansk, Popasna and Izyum.


As part of Russia’s covert mobilization there  are reports Russia is now releasing Russian prisoners with military experience to help with the regeneration of units. Further sightings of new resupplies of old vehicles and weapons from reserve storage have been reported arriving by rail in Belgorod.


The situation around Kharkiv remains mostly unchanged with Russian offensives occuring almost daily with artillery and sometimes air support, but Ukrainian defences are holding and Russia continues to be mostly defending its resupply corridor to Izyum.


Heavy fighting continues in and around Siversk where the situation is extremely fluid.  The situation around Bakhmut is much the same with Russian forces making creeping gains.


Russian offensives towards Slovyansk were mostly repelled yesterday, but heavy fighting continues in parts. Slovyansk will be next major offensive.


There were no further reported Russian manoeuvres of significance out of Izyum or Lyman yesterday.


Near Melitopol more railway lines and signals were sabotaged yesterday.


East of Zaporizhia Ukrainian forces are accelerating their counteroffensives attacking Russian forces in a number of regions with gains near Polohy.


North of Kherson Ukrainian forces made minimal gains on the ground.





8 Jul 22

At the grand strategic level, the joint summit of G20 foreign ministers opened in Bali on Thursday, with Indonesian foreign minister Retno Marsudi urging her counterparts to find ways to end the war in Ukraine sooner rather than later.


Russia’s Lavrov dismissed what he cast as the West’s “frenzied” criticism of the war in Ukraine at the G20 meeting, scolding Russia’s rivals for scuppering a chance to tackle global economic issues.


Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned Kyiv and its Western allies that Moscow has not yet started its military campaign in Ukraine “in earnest”.